Does a Texas Past Predict an Ohio State Future?

Last week, Texas was the story.

The Longhorns beat Ohio State and earned exactly what a resume-based ranking should reward: a quality win against a quality opponent.

This week, let's look at the other side.

Ohio State scheduled an extremely difficult out-of-conference game it didn't have to play.

It lost.

Remember 2025 Texas

Texas may have already shown us the problem.

The 2025 Longhorns played five Top 25 games and earned three Top 25 wins — one of the strongest collections of quality wins in college football.

RCFR rewarded that resume with a #3 ranking.

The CFP ranked Texas #13, and the Longhorns missed the playoff.

Opportunity — and Risk

Ohio State's loss to Texas doesn't ruin its season.

But it reduces its margin for error, with a difficult schedule still ahead.

If Ohio State eventually builds a resume with multiple quality games and quality wins — but also multiple losses — will those accomplishments outweigh the losses?

Or will Ohio State suffer the same fate as 2025 Texas: a strong resume that isn't rewarded enough by the CFP?

The Wrong Incentive

This is bigger than Texas or Ohio State.

College football needs more games like Texas vs. Ohio State — quality programs willing to schedule each other out of conference, on each other's campuses.

But if the downside of losing those games outweighs the benefit of playing them, why take the risk?

That's the wrong incentive.

We Need to Measure Differently

RCFR starts with a simple premise:

Quality wins should matter.

But if we want more quality games, quality losses have to matter too.

Ohio State now gives us a real-time case study to follow.

We don't know how its season will unfold. But if the Buckeyes accumulate quality wins along with additional losses, we'll see whether 2025 Texas was an exception — or a warning.